Whats the percent chance that the 2013 august solar flare will wipe out our power grid
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Whats the percent chance that the 2013 august solar flare will wipe out our power grid

[From: ] [author: ] [Date: 13-08-18] [Hit: ]
-Much much lower than the chances of winning the Powerball 10 times in a row.Remember, its a grid, portions can be isolated and still work at reduced levels, affected areas can be bypassed and very little of the grid are long distance transmission lines over poorly conducting terrain.-Wipe out the power grid?......
There are solar flares all the time, and they are not predictable. Anyone claiming to predict a solar flare in advance of scientific announcements is either lying or misinformed.

Any solar flare could certainly launch a CME in our direction (there have been several this year already), but that doesn't automatically mean trouble.

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Much much lower than the chances of winning the Powerball 10 times in a row. Remember, it's a grid, portions can be isolated and still work at reduced levels, affected areas can be bypassed and very little of the grid are long distance transmission lines over poorly conducting terrain.

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Wipe out the power grid? 0%. Inflict a temporary localised power failure? More than 0% but notably less than 1%.

Consider the numerous large(r) coronal mass ejections that we have already weathered without so much as a blip this year.

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THE August solar flare?
I am sure there have been several already and there will be more.
If you think there will be ONE later this August that will be SO big as to do that, then think again.
The chances of that are so close to 0 that I will say 0.

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Zero

http://www.spaceweather.com/

If you live in the Polar regions (which I doubt) then you might experience short radio blackouts lasting for an hour at the most.

We have already had much stronger flares this year. You didn't even notice them did you?

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Pretty much 0%. These flare ups from the suns poles flipping have happened before and there were no blackouts or power losses then. There's no reason to believe that this time will be any different.

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0 %. Only major solar flares affect the power grid, and there have been no such flares in the last two decades.

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0.001 %.

Solar Flares happen all the time and very rarley do they effect the power grid.

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I would say around 10%.But thats a percentage in the next 5 months.In just august around 1% and a little bit less.
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