What are the probabilities of these events
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What are the probabilities of these events

[From: ] [author: ] [Date: 11-12-31] [Hit: ]
If the probability that a proposal is judged worthy of funding by the first peer review group is .2, what are the probabilities of these events?A.B.C.......
Whether a grant proposal is funded quite often depends on the reviewers. Suppose a group of research proposals was evaluated by a group of experts as to whether the proposals were worthy of funding. When these same proposals were submitted to a second independent group or experts, the decision to fund was reversed in 30% of the cases. If the probability that a proposal is judged worthy of funding by the first peer review group is .2, what are the probabilities of these events?

A. Worthy Proposal is approved by both groups
B. Worthy proposal disapproved by both groups
C. Worthy proposal is approved by one group

-
Let A represent the event that the first group approves the proposal.
Let B represent the event that the second group approves the proposal.

We know the following:

P(A) = 0.2
P(B given A) = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7
P(not B given not A) = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7 .

A) P(approved by both groups)
= P(A and B)
= P(A)P(B given A)
= 0.2(0.7)
= 0.14 .

B) P(disapproved by both groups)
= P(not A and not B)
= P(not A)P(not B given not A)
= (1 - 0.2)(0.7)
= 0.56 .

C) This problem might be ambiguous...do you mean exactly one group or at least one group? So, I will use both interpretations.

P(approved by at least one group)
= 1 - P(disapproved by both groups)
= 1 - 0.56
= 0.44 .

P(approved by exactly one group)
= P(second group reverses the first group's decision)
= 0.3 .

Lord bless you today and Happy New Year!
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