Suppose that, on average, a major earthquake occurs once every 6 years. Find the probability that there will be at least two quakes in the next 10 years.
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poisson distribution
mean # of earthquakes in 10 yrs = 10/6 = 5/3
P[x] = e^-m * m^x /x! , so
P[>=2] = 1 - { P[0] + P[1] } = 1 - e^(-5/3)(1 + 5/3) = 0.4963
mean # of earthquakes in 10 yrs = 10/6 = 5/3
P[x] = e^-m * m^x /x! , so
P[>=2] = 1 - { P[0] + P[1] } = 1 - e^(-5/3)(1 + 5/3) = 0.4963